BIG MARLEY’S UFC 235 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a lot of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase these huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first seat into it a week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will likely have a few shots in the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week at his -800 betting line. I will take that free square foot and proceed. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the toes or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I want to attempt and have at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points . That’s how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones could get a finish then perhaps he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not want that. However, this is a possible 5-round battle, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones since he will be quite highly possessed. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill half the field because that would not be sufficient points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be out of his wrestling. He is one of the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He will not want to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to take takedowns right away and string wrestle until he gets them. When he gets high control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the ground and he must take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he is able to come up with the victory.
Underdog play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he doesn’t get knocked out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and I really don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez are the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. A submission is the best chance at a win of Gall here and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to pay up for those men like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision triumph here I think he can get 10x that salary and when we could find a win against him at the inexpensive salary, I think we will probably be in line for that $50k win when we hit our other five spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I want the very least of. I attempt to acquire a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I do not think there are any must fade favorites this week. Instead, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I think that a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and he really doesn’t have the one punch/kick power that it would take to pull that off. I would be shocked if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, he’d be an easy fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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